Each point represents the median fluorescence intensity measurement (y-value) for a dilution (x-value) of pooled convalescent sera from confirmed positive Vibrio cholerae O1 patients. Each plate’s dilution series were fit using a four-parameter log-logisitic regression (black lines). Shape of each point is unique to each plate.
Each point represents the median fluorescence intensity measurement (y-value) for a dilution (x-value) of pooled convalescent sera from confirmed positive Vibrio cholerae O1 patients. Each plate’s dilution series were fit using a four-parameter log-logisitic regression (black lines). Shape of each point is unique to each plate.
Relative antibody unit (RAU) measurements for each sample are plotted against the median fluorescence intensity (MFI) calculated from averaging triplicate measurements. Relative antibody units estimates were truncated at 10^2 and 10^5 (red points).
Relative antibody unit (RAU) measurements for each sample are plotted against the median fluorescence intensity (MFI) calculated from averaging triplicate measurements. Relative antibody units estimates were truncated at 10^2 and 10^5 (red points). LT-B = heat labile toxin B subunit. LT-H = heat labile toxin holotoxin.
The y-axis indicates the log (base 10) of the Net MFI and the x-axis is the number of days post-infection (square-root transformed). Each colored line indicates individual trajectories over time. The Black solid line is a loess smooth function.
The y-axis indicates log (base 10) of the Net MFI and the x-axis is the number of days post-infection (square-root transformed). Each colored line indicates individual trajectories over time. The Black solid line is a loess smooth function.
The expected log-predictive density (ELPD) and standard error difference was calculated using the loo R package. Asterisks denote that the ELPD of the biphasic model (which includes more parameters) was over 1.96 standard errors larger than the ELPD of the exponential model.See Supplementary Appendix 2 for equations defining each model
Marker | Biphasic ELPD | Exponential ELPD | Biphasic - Exponential |
ELISA CtxB IgA | -88.7 | -88.1 | -0.76 |
ELISA CtxB IgG | 15.1 | 13.0 | 1.97* |
ELISA LPS IgA | -132.8 | -132.5 | -1.60 |
ELISA LPS IgG | -8.2 | -5.2 | -0.90 |
NetMFI IgA CTHT | -126.6 | -133.8 | 3.64* |
NetMFI IgA CtxB | -103.3 | -115.2 | 4.98* |
NetMFI IgA Flu | -87.9 | -89.1 | 1.08 |
NetMFI IgA InabaOSPBSA | -120.3 | -130.0 | 3.46* |
NetMFI IgA LTB | -75.3 | -76.9 | 1.81 |
NetMFI IgA LTh | -66.4 | -68.3 | 2.21* |
NetMFI IgA O139BSA | -70.7 | -71.8 | 1.44 |
NetMFI IgA OgawaOSPBSA | -149.7 | -162.6 | 4.76* |
NetMFI IgA Sialidase | -71.0 | -71.1 | 1.77 |
NetMFI IgA TcpA | -101.8 | -103.4 | 2.47* |
NetMFI IgA VCC | -62.2 | -60.0 | -0.87 |
NetMFI IgG CTHT | -102.1 | -103.9 | 2.03* |
NetMFI IgG CtxB | -77.4 | -81.3 | 2.98* |
NetMFI IgG Flu | -92.8 | -92.9 | 0.85 |
NetMFI IgG InabaOSPBSA | -247.3 | -239.8 | -4.16 |
NetMFI IgG LTB | -69.8 | -69.9 | 0.86 |
NetMFI IgG LTh | -53.7 | -54.3 | 0.96 |
NetMFI IgG O139BSA | -37.1 | -39.6 | 1.27 |
NetMFI IgG OgawaOSPBSA | -177.8 | -186.7 | 5.33* |
NetMFI IgG Sialidase | -33.8 | -32.1 | -1.29 |
NetMFI IgG TcpA | -75.0 | -74.9 | -1.95 |
NetMFI IgG VCC | -27.0 | -26.7 | -1.84 |
NetMFI IgM CTHT | -6.2 | -7.8 | 0.80 |
NetMFI IgM CtxB | -33.6 | -35.9 | 1.47 |
NetMFI IgM Flu | -10.6 | -12.1 | 1.14 |
NetMFI IgM InabaOSPBSA | -103.4 | -106.4 | 2.16* |
NetMFI IgM LTB | -30.8 | -31.3 | 0.68 |
NetMFI IgM LTh | -14.5 | -15.0 | 0.77 |
NetMFI IgM O139BSA | -34.6 | -35.1 | 0.87 |
NetMFI IgM OgawaOSPBSA | -113.5 | -129.0 | 5.65* |
NetMFI IgM Sialidase | -21.5 | -21.3 | -0.56 |
NetMFI IgM TcpA | -26.2 | -20.4 | -2.43 |
NetMFI IgM VCC | 14.9 | 15.5 | -0.35 |
RAU IgA CTHT | -982.0 | -536.5 | -128.71 |
RAU IgA CtxB | -310.6 | -204.0 | -45.55 |
RAU IgA Flu | -8,617.3 | -9,127.3 | 101.39* |
RAU IgA InabaOSPBSA | -1,416.3 | -1,349.6 | -37.60 |
RAU IgA LTB | -684.6 | -612.8 | -28.46 |
RAU IgA LTh | -218.4 | -176.1 | -17.91 |
RAU IgA O139BSA | -375.3 | -406.9 | 15.88* |
RAU IgA OgawaOSPBSA | -246.3 | -177.6 | -33.69 |
RAU IgA Sialidase | -121.2 | -115.3 | -3.72 |
RAU IgA TcpA | -376.1 | -277.1 | -59.60 |
RAU IgA VCC | -1,367.6 | -1,255.5 | -57.20 |
RAU IgG CTHT | -979.8 | -335.8 | -167.97 |
RAU IgG CtxB | -626.3 | -217.1 | -110.94 |
RAU IgG Flu | -8,018.2 | -8,233.8 | 79.50* |
RAU IgG InabaOSPBSA | -160.9 | -145.6 | -14.49 |
RAU IgG LTB | -1,100.8 | -423.8 | -207.12 |
RAU IgG LTh | -1,347.8 | -578.8 | -208.33 |
RAU IgG O139BSA | -433.1 | -341.9 | -37.62 |
RAU IgG OgawaOSPBSA | -279.4 | -199.8 | -42.23 |
RAU IgG Sialidase | -324.8 | -347.8 | 16.85* |
RAU IgG TcpA | -162.7 | -121.2 | -22.41 |
RAU IgG VCC | -4,354.4 | -4,855.9 | 152.84* |
RAU IgM CTHT | -2,319.4 | -2,383.3 | 45.56* |
RAU IgM CtxB | -2,975.0 | -3,103.8 | 53.40* |
RAU IgM Flu | -3,087.9 | -3,521.9 | 75.20* |
RAU IgM InabaOSPBSA | -967.6 | -1,110.8 | 40.82* |
RAU IgM LTB | -2,333.6 | -2,545.7 | 42.28* |
RAU IgM LTh | -990.8 | -1,106.4 | 28.45* |
RAU IgM O139BSA | -404.1 | -364.8 | -23.92 |
RAU IgM OgawaOSPBSA | -546.9 | -462.0 | -23.56 |
RAU IgM Sialidase | -1,668.8 | -1,596.8 | -46.26 |
RAU IgM TcpA | -929.1 | -856.0 | -30.76 |
RAU IgM VCC | -2,925.7 | -2,882.1 | -59.78 |
Vibriocidal Inaba | -609.7 | -579.8 | -16.53 |
Vibriocidal Ogawa | -646.3 | -595.5 | -29.28 |
Each facet shows the log10(RAU) measurements for individuals over time (points). Solid line indicates the median value of exponential decay model. Shaded area is the 95% credible interval.
Each facet shows the log10(RAU) measurements for individuals over time (points). Solid line indicates the median value of exponential decay model. Shaded area is the 95% credible interval.
Each facet shows the log10(RAU) measurements for individuals over time (points). Solid line indicates the median value of exponential decay model. Shaded area is the 95% credible interval.
Each facet shows the log10(RAU) measurements for individuals over time (points). Solid line indicates the median value of exponential decay model. Shaded area is the 95% credible interval.
Each facet shows the log10(RAU) measurements for individuals over time (points). Solid line indicates the median value of exponential decay model. Shaded area is the 95% credible interval.
Each facet shows the log10(RAU) measurements for individuals over time (points). Solid line indicates the median value of exponential decay model. Shaded area is the 95% credible interval.
The median estimate duration of half-life (in days) and the median estimate increase in fold-change for the average individual are shown below as well as in Figure 2. 95% Bayesian Credible Intervals are shown in parentheses.
Isotype | Antigen | Half Life (95% CI) in days | Average Fold-Change (95% CI) |
IgA | RAU CTHT | 18 (26-13) | 22.9 (13.7-26.0) |
RAU CtxB | 27 (36-21) | 29.3 (19.3-36.3) | |
RAU Flu | 3 (12-1) | 5.7 (2.0-11.6) | |
RAU InabaOSPBSA | 29 (39-22) | 33.1 (15.9-38.6) | |
RAU LTB | 16 (22-11) | 17.4 (9.7-22.5) | |
RAU LTh | 21 (26-16) | 22.6 (15.0-26.4) | |
RAU O139BSA | 5 (9-1) | 9.7 (4.1-9.3) | |
RAU OgawaOSPBSA | 38 (54-26) | 27.6 (15.2-54.2) | |
RAU Sialidase | 3 (9-1) | 5.9 (2.9-8.9) | |
RAU TcpA | 8 (13-5) | 11.4 (5.0-13.2) | |
RAU VCC | 8 (14-5) | 10.3 (4.5-13.9) | |
IgG | RAU CTHT | 74 (98-56) | 22.2 (14.5-97.6) |
RAU CtxB | 84 (106-67) | 33.6 (23.5-105.8) | |
RAU Flu | 3 (26-1) | 3.1 (1.5-26.1) | |
RAU InabaOSPBSA | 75 (96-59) | 16.7 (9.6-96.0) | |
RAU LTB | 46 (62-33) | 13.1 (8.5-62.0) | |
RAU LTh | 57 (71-45) | 23.8 (15.0-70.7) | |
RAU O139BSA | 4 (34-1) | 4.1 (1.8-34.4) | |
RAU OgawaOSPBSA | 122 (165-91) | 33.2 (18.5-165.3) | |
RAU Sialidase | 3 (26-1) | 4.0 (1.9-25.6) | |
RAU TcpA | 60 (89-40) | 5.5 (3.7-88.9) | |
RAU VCC | 8 (47-2) | 5.6 (2.3-47.0) | |
IgM | RAU CTHT | 5 (15-1) | 7.7 (2.7-15.0) |
RAU CtxB | 5 (22-1) | 9.0 (2.9-22.0) | |
RAU Flu | 4 (22-1) | 7.5 (2.7-22.1) | |
RAU InabaOSPBSA | 31 (40-24) | 29.1 (15.8-40.5) | |
RAU LTB | 4 (15-1) | 5.5 (2.1-14.5) | |
RAU LTh | 3 (9-1) | 6.7 (2.5-9.3) | |
RAU O139BSA | 3 (149-1) | 2.3 (1.4-148.9) | |
RAU OgawaOSPBSA | 51 (66-40) | 68.5 (38.1-66.0) | |
RAU Sialidase | 5 (19-1) | 9.3 (3.0-19.2) | |
RAU TcpA | 6 (27-2) | 3.8 (1.9-27.3) | |
RAU VCC | 5 (19-1) | 4.2 (2.0-19.5) |
Marker | Half Life (95% CI) in days | Average Fold-Change (95% CI) |
ELISA CtxB IgA | 16 (21-12) | 9.5 (6.6-21.3) |
ELISA CtxB IgG | 51 (75-34) | 4.4 (3.4-75.3) |
ELISA LPS IgA | 30 (46-20) | 9.5 (6.1-45.7) |
ELISA LPS IgG | 47 (74-28) | 3.0 (2.4-74.4) |
Vibriocidal Inaba | 72 (108-47) | 44.2 (24.7-107.9) |
Vibriocidal Ogawa | 118 (201-74) | 45.2 (24.1-201.2) |
The median relative baseline value, median relative fold-change value, and median difference in days of half-life are reported. 95% Bayesian Credible intervals are shown in parentheses. Reference categories include male, non-O blood group, Inaba, and 10+ years old.
Marker | Covariate | Ratio of | Ratio of | Difference in days |
ELISA IgA CtxB | Female | 0.716 (0.473-1.09) | 1.1 (0.509-2.52) | -3 (-13-7) |
O Blood | 0.862 (0.575-1.3) | 1.78 (0.851-3.69) | 9 (1-20)* | |
Ogawa | 1.11 (0.645-1.9) | 1.02 (0.382-2.56) | 4 (-11-14) | |
Under 10 | 0.809 (0.534-1.23) | 1.93 (0.628-4.05) | 1 (-8-11) | |
ELISA IgA LPS | Female | 1.07 (0.707-1.61) | 0.672 (0.274-1.82) | -7 (-28-35) |
O Blood | 1.31 (0.87-1.96) | 2.12 (0.87-5.02) | -13 (-55-14) | |
Ogawa | 1.27 (0.779-2.09) | 1.14 (0.278-3.48) | 18 (-8-39) | |
Under 10 | 0.476 (0.337-0.673)* | 0.801 (0.329-1.96) | 12 (-14-57) | |
ELISA IgG CtxB | Female | 0.98 (0.739-1.32) | 1.38 (0.848-3.53) | -30 (-78-5) |
O Blood | 1.05 (0.781-1.4) | 1.34 (0.815-2.48) | -19 (-68-18) | |
Ogawa | 0.894 (0.622-1.29) | 0.546 (0.145-1.16) | 36 (-1-78) | |
Under 10 | 1.16 (0.872-1.56) | 1.16 (0.7-1.96) | -3 (-49-35) | |
ELISA IgG LPS | Female | 0.892 (0.681-1.17) | 0.922 (0.521-1.56) | 17 (-26-88) |
O Blood | 0.977 (0.744-1.29) | 1.69 (1.04-3.12)* | -28 (-164-23) | |
Ogawa | 0.948 (0.677-1.35) | 0.951 (0.22-1.96) | 19 (-55-58) | |
Under 10 | 0.793 (0.6-1.05) | 0.684 (0.372-1.17) | 44 (-22-187) | |
RAU IgA CTHT | Female | 1.1 (0.717-1.69) | 0.716 (0.245-2.28) | 1 (-10-18) |
O Blood | 1.11 (0.746-1.67) | 0.708 (0.232-2.05) | 9 (-1-23) | |
Ogawa | 1.33 (0.798-2.27) | 1.85 (0.526-6.36) | 9 (-3-20) | |
Under 10 | 0.928 (0.611-1.43) | 1.39 (0.45-3.92) | -2 (-14-9) | |
RAU IgA CtxB | Female | 1.18 (0.72-1.91) | 0.61 (0.252-1.42) | 12 (-6-41) |
O Blood | 1.13 (0.684-1.76) | 0.944 (0.411-2.06) | 3 (-11-19) | |
Ogawa | 1.26 (0.684-2.34) | 1.99 (0.734-5.37) | 12 (-5-25) | |
Under 10 | 0.913 (0.566-1.49) | 1.39 (0.598-3.2) | -6 (-21-9) | |
RAU IgA Flu | Female | 2.81 (0.804-11) | 1.22 (0.389-5.19) | 2 (-9-70) |
O Blood | 1.17 (0.321-4.4) | 0.803 (0.216-2.74) | 0 (-24-15) | |
Ogawa | 2.15 (0.472-11.4) | 1.42 (0.348-5.91) | 0 (-85-14) | |
Under 10 | 0.343 (0.0928-1.2) | 1.31 (0.37-5.56) | -1 (-37-11) | |
RAU IgA Inaba OSP | Female | 2.41 (1.1-5.72)* | 0.585 (0.147-2.36) | -12 (-27-2) |
O Blood | 1.47 (0.657-3.45) | 3.28 (0.837-12.4) | 9 (-7-23) | |
Ogawa | 1.35 (0.455-4.07) | 1.73 (0.38-8.63) | 6 (-15-21) | |
Under 10 | 0.306 (0.139-0.618)* | 0.379 (0.104-1.46) | -6 (-20-14) | |
RAU IgA LTB | Female | 0.802 (0.537-1.22) | 1.1 (0.359-4.21) | -2 (-10-10) |
O Blood | 1.31 (0.886-1.92) | 0.709 (0.216-2.15) | 5 (-3-15) | |
Ogawa | 1.29 (0.778-2.12) | 1.93 (0.523-7.73) | 1 (-13-11) | |
Under 10 | 0.94 (0.633-1.4) | 1.34 (0.41-3.87) | 1 (-8-10) | |
RAU IgA LTh | Female | 1.07 (0.666-1.77) | 0.725 (0.302-1.87) | 3 (-8-20) |
O Blood | 1.37 (0.875-2.17) | 0.669 (0.28-1.58) | 6 (-3-17) | |
Ogawa | 1.46 (0.819-2.61) | 1.6 (0.601-4.33) | 2 (-11-12) | |
Under 10 | 0.86 (0.541-1.34) | 1.62 (0.669-3.59) | 1 (-9-10) | |
RAU IgA O139 | Female | 1.07 (0.668-1.75) | 0.7 (0.169-2.87) | -3 (-9-5) |
O Blood | 1.18 (0.749-1.86) | 0.556 (0.133-2.25) | 0 (-6-9) | |
Ogawa | 1.19 (0.673-2.12) | 1.8 (0.392-7.89) | 0 (-23-6) | |
Under 10 | 0.473 (0.322-0.698)* | 1.15 (0.303-4.56) | -2 (-9-4) | |
RAU IgA Ogawa OSP | Female | 1.43 (0.771-2.62) | 0.641 (0.2-2.17) | -12 (-35-17) |
O Blood | 1.33 (0.74-2.42) | 2.57 (0.822-7.82) | -15 (-45-10) | |
Ogawa | 2.9 (1.49-5.66)* | 2.82 (0.689-10.3) | 21 (-7-44) | |
Under 10 | 0.375 (0.212-0.644)* | 0.402 (0.127-1.2) | 30 (-7-75) | |
RAU IgA Sialidase | Female | 0.968 (0.635-1.49) | 1.08 (0.325-4.13) | -2 (-12-6) |
O Blood | 1.19 (0.797-1.81) | 0.871 (0.252-3.09) | 4 (-4-19) | |
Ogawa | 1.47 (0.876-2.47) | 1.42 (0.365-5.14) | 2 (-10-10) | |
Under 10 | 0.645 (0.439-0.942)* | 1.55 (0.479-5.79) | -7 (-19-1) | |
RAU IgA TcpA | Female | 1.12 (0.717-1.74) | 1.4 (0.357-6.3) | -5 (-13-2) |
O Blood | 1.03 (0.672-1.58) | 0.61 (0.155-2.34) | 10 (4-21)* | |
Ogawa | 1.38 (0.814-2.39) | 0.862 (0.169-4.37) | 5 (-3-13) | |
Under 10 | 0.479 (0.34-0.677)* | 0.949 (0.232-4.2) | -8 (-15--2)* | |
RAU IgA VCC | Female | 1.21 (0.796-1.82) | 1.21 (0.285-4.96) | 6 (-1-16) |
O Blood | 1.03 (0.696-1.54) | 0.696 (0.157-2.77) | 5 (-2-15) | |
Ogawa | 1.06 (0.63-1.76) | 0.717 (0.136-3.76) | 2 (-9-10) | |
Under 10 | 0.617 (0.428-0.884)* | 1.33 (0.321-6.14) | -4 (-12-2) | |
RAU IgG CTHT | Female | 0.559 (0.339-0.925)* | 1.47 (0.607-3.35) | 17 (-22-56) |
O Blood | 0.985 (0.59-1.63) | 0.975 (0.427-2.36) | -13 (-50-25) | |
Ogawa | 0.88 (0.459-1.69) | 1.62 (0.493-4.31) | 48 (11-80)* | |
Under 10 | 1.91 (1.19-3.11)* | 1.26 (0.541-2.98) | -27 (-71-9) | |
RAU IgG CtxB | Female | 0.848 (0.457-1.54) | 0.974 (0.45-2.03) | 19 (-17-60) |
O Blood | 0.694 (0.383-1.25) | 1.12 (0.543-2.33) | 6 (-30-45) | |
Ogawa | 1.26 (0.586-2.71) | 1.4 (0.573-3.5) | 33 (-10-69) | |
Under 10 | 1.66 (0.93-3) | 0.951 (0.462-1.96) | -13 (-50-25) | |
RAU IgG Flu | Female | 1.45 (0.313-7.81) | 1.25 (0.479-4.36) | 2 (-28-84) |
O Blood | 1.27 (0.256-6.17) | 0.925 (0.321-2.63) | -1 (-52-153) | |
Ogawa | 5.63 (0.859-36.2) | 1.06 (0.273-3.19) | -2 (-138-37) | |
Under 10 | 0.351 (0.0744-1.56) | 1.15 (0.451-3.65) | -1 (-113-28) | |
RAU IgG Inaba OSP | Female | 0.904 (0.542-1.5) | 0.921 (0.296-2.84) | -24 (-58-13) |
O Blood | 1.29 (0.778-2.15) | 2.36 (0.812-6.75) | 0 (-47-37) | |
Ogawa | 0.99 (0.519-1.88) | 1.12 (0.308-4.01) | 9 (-52-49) | |
Under 10 | 0.879 (0.527-1.45) | 0.297 (0.108-0.859)* | 64 (-11-176) | |
RAU IgG LTB | Female | 0.606 (0.371-0.989)* | 1.3 (0.519-2.98) | 13 (-12-41) |
O Blood | 0.875 (0.534-1.44) | 1.02 (0.428-2.57) | 1 (-24-27) | |
Ogawa | 1.31 (0.712-2.46) | 1.06 (0.247-3.32) | 29 (3-52)* | |
Under 10 | 1.21 (0.75-1.99) | 1.42 (0.601-3.44) | -8 (-35-16) | |
RAU IgG LTh | Female | 0.747 (0.406-1.38) | 1.02 (0.386-2.48) | 17 (-7-44) |
O Blood | 0.993 (0.548-1.79) | 1.03 (0.429-2.58) | 1 (-23-24) | |
Ogawa | 1.22 (0.58-2.61) | 1.58 (0.479-4.65) | 26 (0-48)* | |
Under 10 | 1.5 (0.835-2.67) | 1.6 (0.662-3.99) | -10 (-33-14) | |
RAU IgG O139 | Female | 0.583 (0.38-0.884)* | 0.9 (0.323-2.99) | -1 (-24-152) |
O Blood | 1.04 (0.67-1.61) | 0.979 (0.395-2.44) | -44 (-154--1)* | |
Ogawa | 1.15 (0.664-2.01) | 0.908 (0.216-3.17) | 0 (-42-60) | |
Under 10 | 0.79 (0.504-1.21) | 1.47 (0.458-5.08) | -5 (-132-6) | |
RAU IgG Ogawa OSP | Female | 0.636 (0.395-1.05) | 0.947 (0.304-2.98) | 8 (-61-100) |
O Blood | 1.11 (0.672-1.84) | 2.04 (0.656-6.18) | -11 (-90-60) | |
Ogawa | 1.94 (1.14-3.37)* | 3.57 (0.994-12.8) | 53 (-16-114) | |
Under 10 | 0.894 (0.57-1.42) | 0.281 (0.0955-0.873)* | 175 (71-320)* | |
RAU IgG Sialidase | Female | 0.923 (0.598-1.41) | 1.03 (0.361-3.18) | -1 (-28-119) |
O Blood | 1.17 (0.774-1.76) | 1.06 (0.402-2.59) | -4 (-56-10) | |
Ogawa | 0.837 (0.501-1.46) | 1.5 (0.484-5.4) | 1 (-16-51) | |
Under 10 | 0.739 (0.501-1.1) | 0.933 (0.244-2.33) | -11 (-90-11) | |
RAU IgG TcpA | Female | 1.14 (0.736-1.78) | 1.17 (0.519-2.73) | -22 (-63-25) |
O Blood | 0.787 (0.512-1.2) | 1.37 (0.616-3.01) | -18 (-89-27) | |
Ogawa | 1.35 (0.8-2.28) | 0.632 (0.235-1.66) | 9 (-43-54) | |
Under 10 | 0.752 (0.492-1.15) | 0.445 (0.211-1.01) | 27 (-35-129) | |
RAU IgG VCC | Female | 0.915 (0.553-1.51) | 1.42 (0.384-5.41) | 22 (-6-78) |
O Blood | 0.769 (0.476-1.24) | 0.773 (0.134-2.51) | -15 (-90-11) | |
Ogawa | 0.938 (0.493-1.72) | 0.942 (0.197-4.12) | -3 (-35-53) | |
Under 10 | 0.718 (0.444-1.14) | 1.43 (0.422-6.18) | -4 (-57-17) | |
RAU IgM CTHT | Female | 1.43 (0.87-2.37) | 1.02 (0.257-4.39) | -2 (-15-17) |
O Blood | 0.717 (0.433-1.17) | 0.658 (0.156-2.41) | -2 (-18-9) | |
Ogawa | 0.502 (0.276-0.909)* | 1.08 (0.193-5.16) | 2 (-24-15) | |
Under 10 | 0.971 (0.565-1.84) | 1.86 (0.423-9.01) | -4 (-69-6) | |
RAU IgM CtxB | Female | 1.45 (0.763-2.74) | 0.718 (0.183-3.2) | 3 (-14-105) |
O Blood | 0.589 (0.318-1.06) | 0.66 (0.141-2.77) | 1 (-24-33) | |
Ogawa | 0.411 (0.185-0.881)* | 1.92 (0.409-8.16) | -21 (-194-7) | |
Under 10 | 1.02 (0.532-1.91) | 2.81 (0.535-14.5) | -8 (-152-11) | |
RAU IgM Flu | Female | 1.7 (0.938-3.08) | 0.898 (0.26-3.92) | 17 (-10-121) |
O Blood | 0.595 (0.329-1.06) | 0.836 (0.211-2.81) | -1 (-74-23) | |
Ogawa | 0.555 (0.253-1.18) | 1.35 (0.331-5.76) | -10 (-140-10) | |
Under 10 | 1.26 (0.685-2.29) | 1.25 (0.321-6.1) | 1 (-54-30) | |
RAU IgM Inaba OSP | Female | 2.64 (1.07-6.64)* | 0.762 (0.23-2.65) | -13 (-28-2) |
O Blood | 0.894 (0.331-2.35) | 1.97 (0.629-6.38) | 14 (0-29)* | |
Ogawa | 0.285 (0.0878-0.871)* | 1.73 (0.457-6.5) | 12 (-6-27) | |
Under 10 | 0.608 (0.237-1.55) | 0.649 (0.198-2.23) | -17 (-30--3)* | |
RAU IgM LTB | Female | 1.37 (0.672-2.85) | 0.939 (0.285-4.06) | 8 (-5-113) |
O Blood | 0.672 (0.333-1.32) | 0.882 (0.231-3.25) | 1 (-27-17) | |
Ogawa | 0.449 (0.175-1.05) | 1.01 (0.176-4) | -4 (-87-8) | |
Under 10 | 1.18 (0.592-2.38) | 1.21 (0.331-4.9) | -2 (-43-10) | |
RAU IgM LTh | Female | 1.18 (0.604-2.25) | 1.03 (0.283-6.26) | 4 (-6-149) |
O Blood | 0.659 (0.356-1.23) | 0.864 (0.137-3.68) | 1 (-40-17) | |
Ogawa | 0.523 (0.239-1.15) | 1.48 (0.287-6.64) | -2 (-177-7) | |
Under 10 | 1.1 (0.584-2.04) | 1.27 (0.32-6.22) | 0 (-95-11) | |
RAU IgM O139 | Female | 1.22 (0.685-2.16) | 0.824 (0.351-1.64) | 69 (-5-261) |
O Blood | 0.822 (0.466-1.46) | 1.08 (0.435-2.25) | -38 (-261-23) | |
Ogawa | 0.541 (0.263-1.09) | 1.24 (0.471-2.79) | -5 (-347-74) | |
Under 10 | 0.563 (0.323-0.973)* | 1.06 (0.471-2.5) | -16 (-233-31) | |
RAU IgM Ogawa OSP | Female | 1.48 (0.605-3.59) | 0.519 (0.17-1.61) | -3 (-29-30) |
O Blood | 1.49 (0.628-3.61) | 1.19 (0.398-3.69) | -11 (-36-14) | |
Ogawa | 0.926 (0.303-2.87) | 7.24 (2.02-23.7)* | 25 (-19-48) | |
Under 10 | 0.539 (0.23-1.27) | 0.907 (0.295-2.83) | -8 (-32-18) | |
RAU IgM Sialidase | Female | 2 (1.01-3.95)* | 1.08 (0.252-5.51) | 12 (-9-118) |
O Blood | 1.06 (0.519-2.1) | 0.83 (0.182-3.89) | -4 (-64-14) | |
Ogawa | 0.534 (0.211-1.32) | 1.51 (0.275-7.76) | -3 (-203-13) | |
Under 10 | 0.777 (0.378-1.53) | 1.02 (0.235-5.06) | -1 (-22-26) | |
RAU IgM TcpA | Female | 1.29 (0.47-3.43) | 0.573 (0.17-2.31) | 633 (-8-2154) |
O Blood | 0.864 (0.358-2.09) | 0.936 (0.229-2.94) | -2 (-313-18) | |
Ogawa | 0.656 (0.223-1.93) | 1.32 (0.334-4.46) | 2 (-84-24) | |
Under 10 | 0.939 (0.396-2.21) | 0.888 (0.273-3.2) | -10 (-295-8) | |
RAU IgM VCC | Female | 1.66 (0.861-3.33) | 1.23 (0.414-4.75) | 4 (-11-45) |
O Blood | 0.558 (0.25-1.08) | 0.784 (0.259-2.28) | -1 (-26-16) | |
Ogawa | 0.489 (0.207-1.09) | 0.856 (0.183-2.84) | -3 (-34-14) | |
Under 10 | 0.847 (0.425-1.66) | 1.12 (0.383-3.77) | -1 (-30-15) | |
Vibriocidal | Female | 3.47 (1.12-11.2)* | 0.718 (0.216-2.33) | -33 (-85-27) |
O Blood | 1.35 (0.42-3.94) | 0.839 (0.266-2.53) | 16 (-42-81) | |
Ogawa | 0.238 (0.0478-0.962)* | 0.814 (0.212-3.77) | 25 (-37-81) | |
Under 10 | 0.901 (0.282-2.84) | 0.587 (0.193-1.84) | 18 (-40-90) | |
Vibriocidal | Female | 0.476 (0.173-1.34) | 0.673 (0.176-2.41) | 422 (210-764)* |
O Blood | 1.14 (0.417-3.37) | 1.11 (0.329-3.96) | -36 (-217-82) | |
Ogawa | 0.316 (0.0941-1.05) | 3.41 (0.813-13.8) | 102 (-4-244) | |
Under 10 | 0.202 (0.0708-0.547)* | 1.48 (0.401-5.45) | 230 (104-439)* | |
IgA NetMFI_CTHT | Female | 0.984 (0.615-1.57) | 0.822 (0.342-2.05) | 0 (-13-21) |
O Blood | 1.08 (0.695-1.69) | 0.839 (0.356-1.92) | 8 (-5-25) | |
Ogawa | 1.28 (0.722-2.26) | 1.53 (0.533-4.17) | 12 (-2-25) | |
Under 10 | 0.975 (0.629-1.54) | 1.44 (0.632-3.34) | -5 (-20-8) | |
IgA NetMFI_CtxB | Female | 1.08 (0.655-1.76) | 0.695 (0.325-1.47) | 11 (-7-39) |
O Blood | 1.08 (0.662-1.75) | 0.997 (0.471-2.05) | 3 (-11-19) | |
Ogawa | 1.14 (0.627-2.06) | 1.97 (0.791-4.78) | 13 (-4-26) | |
Under 10 | 0.964 (0.598-1.55) | 1.36 (0.658-2.79) | -6 (-21-9) | |
IgA NetMFI_Flu | Female | 1.83 (0.832-4.06) | 1.18 (0.545-3.9) | 0 (-22-37) |
O Blood | 1.02 (0.469-2.28) | 0.951 (0.359-2.36) | 0 (-36-22) | |
Ogawa | 1.83 (0.72-4.89) | 0.974 (0.321-2.42) | -1 (-80-14) | |
Under 10 | 0.601 (0.281-1.29) | 1.19 (0.531-3.89) | -1 (-31-18) | |
IgA NetMFI_Inaba OSP | Female | 1.33 (0.724-2.47) | 0.662 (0.161-2.65) | -6 (-18-7) |
O Blood | 1.57 (0.885-2.73) | 2.82 (0.668-9.53) | 8 (-4-20) | |
Ogawa | 0.926 (0.431-2.04) | 1.89 (0.397-9.67) | 5 (-13-19) | |
Under 10 | 0.477 (0.272-0.831)* | 0.32 (0.0867-1.32) | -8 (-20-9) | |
IgA NetMFI_LTB | Female | 0.742 (0.487-1.15) | 1.08 (0.449-3.02) | -2 (-10-13) |
O Blood | 1.29 (0.862-2) | 0.773 (0.33-1.73) | 4 (-5-15) | |
Ogawa | 1.18 (0.689-2.01) | 1.66 (0.58-4.37) | 2 (-12-13) | |
Under 10 | 0.935 (0.611-1.44) | 1.45 (0.586-3.33) | 0 (-10-9) | |
IgA NetMFI_LTh | Female | 0.969 (0.619-1.52) | 0.738 (0.349-1.63) | 5 (-6-22) |
O Blood | 1.37 (0.892-2.09) | 0.78 (0.368-1.62) | 6 (-4-16) | |
Ogawa | 1.23 (0.707-2.13) | 1.74 (0.708-4.2) | 3 (-11-13) | |
Under 10 | 0.951 (0.622-1.47) | 1.49 (0.697-3.18) | 0 (-9-10) | |
IgA NetMFI_O139 | Female | 0.825 (0.529-1.29) | 0.84 (0.234-3.25) | -4 (-11-3) |
O Blood | 1.15 (0.746-1.8) | 0.563 (0.144-2.25) | 1 (-6-12) | |
Ogawa | 1.12 (0.636-1.96) | 1.51 (0.325-6.25) | 0 (-24-7) | |
Under 10 | 0.487 (0.342-0.695)* | 1.11 (0.31-4.15) | -4 (-10-3) | |
IgA NetMFI_Ogawa OSP | Female | 1.11 (0.691-1.78) | 0.685 (0.206-2.33) | -5 (-24-19) |
O Blood | 1.23 (0.769-1.97) | 2.61 (0.804-8.25) | -11 (-36-10) | |
Ogawa | 1.97 (1.17-3.31)* | 3.18 (0.795-12.2) | 16 (-10-35) | |
Under 10 | 0.638 (0.409-0.99)* | 0.384 (0.118-1.32) | -12 (-29-17) | |
IgA NetMFI_Sialidase | Female | 0.869 (0.561-1.32) | 1.2 (0.337-4.59) | -2 (-11-4) |
O Blood | 1.23 (0.815-1.88) | 0.728 (0.222-2.5) | 6 (-2-18) | |
Ogawa | 1.36 (0.816-2.31) | 1.54 (0.374-5.51) | 2 (-7-9) | |
Under 10 | 0.595 (0.412-0.869)* | 1.61 (0.478-6.29) | -8 (-16-0) | |
IgA NetMFI_TcpA | Female | 0.885 (0.587-1.34) | 1.4 (0.355-5.86) | -4 (-12-4) |
O Blood | 1.06 (0.711-1.57) | 0.765 (0.191-2.78) | 9 (2-20)* | |
Ogawa | 1.35 (0.82-2.2) | 0.786 (0.165-3.87) | 5 (-4-13) | |
Under 10 | 0.616 (0.424-0.877)* | 0.913 (0.238-3.74) | -8 (-16--2)* | |
IgA NetMFI_VCC | Female | 1.09 (0.691-1.71) | 1.58 (0.383-5.85) | 4 (-4-12) |
O Blood | 0.985 (0.626-1.54) | 0.559 (0.154-2.05) | 10 (1-24)* | |
Ogawa | 0.911 (0.508-1.58) | 0.764 (0.165-3.77) | 1 (-9-10) | |
Under 10 | 0.479 (0.333-0.687)* | 1.1 (0.26-5.94) | -3 (-10-5) | |
IgG NetMFI_CTHT | Female | 0.543 (0.313-0.942)* | 1.85 (0.963-3.52) | 7 (-35-50) |
O Blood | 0.934 (0.526-1.66) | 0.916 (0.485-1.78) | -18 (-60-24) | |
Ogawa | 0.909 (0.439-1.89) | 1.36 (0.457-3.27) | 62 (25-97)* | |
Under 10 | 2.05 (1.19-3.56)* | 0.907 (0.468-1.77) | -23 (-67-18) | |
IgG NetMFI_CtxB | Female | 0.861 (0.425-1.74) | 1.22 (0.703-2.16) | 4 (-44-54) |
O Blood | 0.67 (0.342-1.28) | 1.25 (0.731-2.2) | -3 (-50-46) | |
Ogawa | 1.23 (0.539-2.89) | 1.02 (0.478-2.1) | 64 (18-107)* | |
Under 10 | 1.82 (0.949-3.49) | 0.817 (0.471-1.41) | -12 (-61-35) | |
IgG NetMFI_Flu | Female | 1.34 (0.379-4.59) | 1.15 (0.649-2.77) | 2 (-74-148) |
O Blood | 1.04 (0.302-3.56) | 1.03 (0.582-2.11) | 0 (-73-308) | |
Ogawa | 5.15 (1.16-23.2)* | 0.748 (0.178-1.66) | -3 (-241-55) | |
Under 10 | 0.476 (0.139-1.57) | 1.18 (0.665-2.68) | 0 (-181-57) | |
IgG NetMFI_Inaba OSP | Female | 0.809 (0.397-1.67) | 0.947 (0.273-3.39) | -29 (-64-10) |
O Blood | 1.39 (0.683-2.79) | 2.45 (0.721-7.62) | 1 (-50-41) | |
Ogawa | 0.96 (0.386-2.4) | 1.22 (0.299-4.93) | 18 (-44-58) | |
Under 10 | 0.99 (0.482-2.05) | 0.262 (0.0835-0.848)* | 70 (-14-193) | |
IgG NetMFI_LTB | Female | 0.601 (0.335-1.08) | 1.57 (0.74-3.29) | 10 (-19-40) |
O Blood | 0.829 (0.461-1.49) | 0.929 (0.442-1.92) | 0 (-29-28) | |
Ogawa | 1.54 (0.746-3.08) | 0.937 (0.231-2.47) | 35 (9-59)* | |
Under 10 | 1.23 (0.687-2.17) | 1.28 (0.629-2.62) | -5 (-34-23) | |
IgG NetMFI_LTh | Female | 0.783 (0.392-1.55) | 1.51 (0.768-2.95) | 11 (-18-43) |
O Blood | 0.946 (0.488-1.85) | 0.855 (0.438-1.67) | -3 (-33-26) | |
Ogawa | 1.36 (0.608-3.08) | 1.04 (0.365-2.47) | 40 (11-66)* | |
Under 10 | 1.53 (0.789-2.92) | 1.08 (0.557-2.09) | -1 (-31-29) | |
IgG NetMFI_O139 | Female | 0.584 (0.363-0.935)* | 0.969 (0.318-3.36) | -2 (-17-61) |
O Blood | 0.944 (0.569-1.55) | 0.889 (0.219-2.45) | -21 (-130-2) | |
Ogawa | 1.34 (0.737-2.46) | 0.792 (0.179-2.83) | 1 (-27-21) | |
Under 10 | 0.712 (0.443-1.15) | 1.77 (0.54-6.53) | -3 (-55-7) | |
IgG NetMFI_Ogawa OSP | Female | 0.63 (0.389-1.04) | 1.02 (0.315-3.19) | -14 (-77-63) |
O Blood | 1.04 (0.621-1.75) | 1.98 (0.62-5.86) | 4 (-73-68) | |
Ogawa | 1.92 (1.1-3.48)* | 3.97 (1.11-14.3)* | 51 (-15-107) | |
Under 10 | 0.909 (0.566-1.48) | 0.315 (0.104-0.969)* | 142 (45-285)* | |
IgG NetMFI_Sialidase | Female | 0.87 (0.557-1.36) | 1.27 (0.588-3.34) | -17 (-37-144) |
O Blood | 1.1 (0.722-1.71) | 0.928 (0.501-1.86) | -6 (-39-32) | |
Ogawa | 0.853 (0.503-1.46) | 0.976 (0.371-2.09) | 27 (10-51)* | |
Under 10 | 0.762 (0.502-1.15) | 1.07 (0.533-2.62) | -36 (-67--16)* | |
IgG NetMFI_TcpA | Female | 0.902 (0.542-1.53) | 1.08 (0.46-2.56) | -21 (-55-19) |
O Blood | 0.784 (0.471-1.29) | 1.41 (0.613-3.12) | -11 (-72-27) | |
Ogawa | 1.49 (0.804-2.79) | 0.565 (0.206-1.5) | 5 (-36-44) | |
Under 10 | 1.1 (0.669-1.8) | 0.42 (0.194-0.959)* | 8 (-38-93) | |
IgG NetMFI_VCC | Female | 0.765 (0.47-1.22) | 1.15 (0.312-2.68) | 30 (-15-82) |
O Blood | 0.749 (0.474-1.18) | 0.915 (0.452-2.11) | -19 (-70-26) | |
Ogawa | 0.973 (0.529-1.76) | 0.594 (0.121-1.4) | 33 (-9-86) | |
Under 10 | 0.909 (0.579-1.43) | 1.64 (0.687-5.01) | -38 (-70--11)* | |
IgM NetMFI_CTHT | Female | 1.48 (1-2.2) | 1.28 (0.427-5.16) | -2 (-15-8) |
O Blood | 0.788 (0.537-1.18) | 0.754 (0.238-2.41) | 2 (-7-20) | |
Ogawa | 0.71 (0.444-1.2) | 1.3 (0.371-4.25) | 3 (-16-15) | |
Under 10 | 1.13 (0.753-1.75) | 1.28 (0.394-4.52) | -2 (-21-8) | |
IgM NetMFI_CtxB | Female | 1.45 (0.943-2.28) | 1.1 (0.386-5.2) | 0 (-38-37) |
O Blood | 0.655 (0.427-1) | 1.01 (0.32-2.86) | 1 (-95-22) | |
Ogawa | 0.663 (0.378-1.14) | 1.58 (0.432-5.87) | -7 (-112-14) | |
Under 10 | 1.05 (0.681-1.63) | 1.33 (0.466-4.42) | -2 (-95-13) | |
IgM NetMFI_Flu | Female | 1.49 (0.933-2.38) | 2.27 (0.666-9.42) | 0 (-8-7) |
O Blood | 0.661 (0.416-1.04) | 0.691 (0.222-2.04) | 1 (-4-11) | |
Ogawa | 0.841 (0.457-1.54) | 0.387 (0.075-1.79) | 2 (-5-14) | |
Under 10 | 1.32 (0.832-2.12) | 1.75 (0.549-6.55) | -2 (-11-3) | |
IgM NetMFI_Inaba OSP | Female | 2.01 (1.08-3.67)* | 0.924 (0.308-2.87) | -9 (-23-5) |
O Blood | 0.895 (0.483-1.71) | 1.91 (0.639-5.35) | 13 (0-26) | |
Ogawa | 0.467 (0.214-1.03) | 1.18 (0.341-4.3) | 8 (-9-21) | |
Under 10 | 0.806 (0.431-1.48) | 0.532 (0.181-1.7) | -16 (-28--3)* | |
IgM NetMFI_LTB | Female | 1.29 (0.822-1.99) | 1.15 (0.437-4.06) | 1 (-9-81) |
O Blood | 0.807 (0.531-1.24) | 1.1 (0.389-3.09) | 3 (-14-20) | |
Ogawa | 0.681 (0.403-1.19) | 1.09 (0.304-3.08) | 0 (-39-12) | |
Under 10 | 1.3 (0.85-1.98) | 1.16 (0.44-3.74) | -2 (-44-8) | |
IgM NetMFI_LTh | Female | 1.19 (0.81-1.76) | 1.19 (0.419-4.94) | 2 (-5-20) |
O Blood | 0.744 (0.513-1.09) | 1.04 (0.339-3.23) | 2 (-4-14) | |
Ogawa | 0.759 (0.469-1.23) | 1.33 (0.353-4.3) | 0 (-19-7) | |
Under 10 | 1.12 (0.76-1.63) | 1.28 (0.44-4.41) | -1 (-13-6) | |
IgM NetMFI_O139 | Female | 1.29 (0.724-2.24) | 0.933 (0.483-1.71) | 68 (-7-277) |
O Blood | 0.866 (0.501-1.49) | 1.07 (0.571-2) | -28 (-262-31) | |
Ogawa | 0.575 (0.297-1.11) | 1.16 (0.535-2.25) | -2 (-247-114) | |
Under 10 | 0.611 (0.363-1.04) | 1.09 (0.604-2.34) | -8 (-187-58) | |
IgM NetMFI_Ogawa OSP | Female | 1.15 (0.627-2.14) | 0.632 (0.22-1.84) | 5 (-15-32) |
O Blood | 1.31 (0.715-2.37) | 1.29 (0.448-3.8) | -7 (-27-13) | |
Ogawa | 1.1 (0.514-2.33) | 5.16 (1.57-16)* | 19 (-15-37) | |
Under 10 | 0.927 (0.503-1.67) | 0.696 (0.25-1.95) | -21 (-41--3)* | |
IgM NetMFI_Sialidase | Female | 1.37 (0.943-1.94) | 0.979 (0.552-1.85) | 6 (-21-110) |
O Blood | 0.898 (0.627-1.3) | 1.04 (0.547-1.94) | -1 (-158-25) | |
Ogawa | 0.73 (0.469-1.15) | 0.908 (0.366-1.68) | -4 (-87-25) | |
Under 10 | 0.909 (0.619-1.32) | 1.06 (0.593-1.99) | 0 (-44-72) | |
IgM NetMFI_TcpA | Female | 1.58 (1.01-2.42)* | 1.36 (0.498-4.76) | -3 (-15-5) |
O Blood | 0.791 (0.511-1.23) | 0.738 (0.249-2.08) | 3 (-5-17) | |
Ogawa | 0.837 (0.482-1.48) | 1.1 (0.303-3.15) | 1 (-16-9) | |
Under 10 | 0.946 (0.604-1.45) | 0.794 (0.305-2.31) | -2 (-10-8) | |
IgM NetMFI_VCC | Female | 1.85 (1.2-2.84)* | 0.959 (0.548-1.89) | 7 (-9-76) |
O Blood | 0.682 (0.44-1.07) | 1.05 (0.5-2.01) | 2 (-39-28) | |
Ogawa | 0.711 (0.397-1.25) | 1.04 (0.401-1.87) | -3 (-63-16) | |
Under 10 | 0.909 (0.574-1.45) | 1.09 (0.598-2.02) | 0 (-36-25) |
Each point indicates the median estimate of the average individual fold-rise from baseline to peak (y-value) and the median estimate of the half-life (x-value) for exponential decay univariate models. Marginal 95% credible intervals are shown as lines. Model estimates for the vibriocidal assay are shown for reference and are identical across panels.
Models were fit to 18 MBA markers and 3 demographic variables (age, sex, and blood type). The ensemble model was created using the R package SuperLearner. Four different types of models were combined into the ensemble: Random Forest models (ranger), Lasso and Elastic-Net Regularized Generalized Linear Models (glmnet), Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (bartMachine), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (xgboost). All models were unweighted.
Estimates of mean cvAUC (10-fold) and 95% confidence interval are shown for weighted and non-weighted models between 50- and 600-day infection windows at 10-day intervals (A). Rug plot shows the day of collection of samples from cases used in training models. Samples collected under 5 days since infection, over 600 days since infection, or from household contacts are not shown. For each infection window of weighted models, the rankings of predictors by their importance are shown on the y-axis (B). Colors of lines are unique to each predictor.
Random forest models were fit using a the specified marker set and individual level factors including age, sex, and blood group. Mean and 95% confidence intervals for cvAUC are reported.
Marker Set | 45-day | 120-day | 200-day | 300-day |
All NetMFI | 0.96 (0.94-0.98) | 0.91 (0.89-0.93) | 0.91 (0.88-0.94) | 0.90 (0.86-0.93) |
All RAU | 0.95 (0.93-0.97) | 0.92 (0.89-0.94) | 0.92 (0.89-0.94) | 0.91 (0.87-0.94) |
ELISA | 0.94 (0.91-0.98) | 0.87 (0.84-0.91) | 0.80 (0.76-0.85) | 0.78 (0.74-0.83) |
IgA NetMFI | 0.92 (0.90-0.95) | 0.89 (0.86-0.92) | 0.89 (0.86-0.92) | 0.86 (0.82-0.91) |
IgA RAU | 0.93 (0.90-0.96) | 0.89 (0.86-0.91) | 0.89 (0.87-0.92) | 0.84 (0.81-0.87) |
IgG NetMFI | 0.93 (0.90-0.96) | 0.90 (0.87-0.93) | 0.90 (0.87-0.93) | 0.87 (0.83-0.91) |
IgG RAU | 0.92 (0.89-0.95) | 0.90 (0.87-0.93) | 0.91 (0.88-0.93) | 0.88 (0.84-0.92) |
IgM NetMFI | 0.90 (0.86-0.95) | 0.83 (0.80-0.87) | 0.78 (0.73-0.82) | 0.77 (0.72-0.82) |
IgM RAU | 0.90 (0.86-0.94) | 0.85 (0.81-0.88) | 0.80 (0.76-0.84) | 0.80 (0.75-0.85) |
Vibriocidal | 0.92 (0.88-0.96) | 0.86 (0.81-0.90) | 0.83 (0.78-0.88) | 0.81 (0.76-0.85) |
Vibriocidal & | 0.97 (0.95-0.99) | 0.92 (0.90-0.94) | 0.88 (0.85-0.91) | 0.88 (0.85-0.91) |
Random forest models were using a reduced panel of MBA IgG markers and individual level factors including age, sex, and blood group. Mean and 95% confidence intervals for cvAUC are reported.
MBA Panel for IgG | 45-day | 120-day | 200-day | 300-day |
CT-B | 0.89 (0.83-0.95) | 0.86 (0.81-0.90) | 0.82 (0.78-0.86) | 0.77 (0.71-0.83) |
+ Ogawa OSP | 0.91 (0.87-0.95) | 0.89 (0.86-0.92) | 0.88 (0.85-0.91) | 0.84 (0.80-0.88) |
+ Inaba OSP | 0.93 (0.89-0.96) | 0.90 (0.87-0.93) | 0.89 (0.87-0.92) | 0.87 (0.83-0.91) |
+ TcpA | 0.93 (0.90-0.96) | 0.90 (0.88-0.93) | 0.89 (0.87-0.92) | 0.89 (0.85-0.92) |
+ Sialidase | 0.93 (0.90-0.96) | 0.91 (0.88-0.93) | 0.91 (0.89-0.94) | 0.89 (0.86-0.93) |
+ VCC | 0.93 (0.90-0.96) | 0.90 (0.87-0.93) | 0.91 (0.88-0.94) | 0.87 (0.83-0.92) |
Random forest models were fit using a specified marker set and individual level factors including age, sex, and blood type (A). Estimated mean and 95% confidence intervals for cvAUC are reported. Models fit to reduced panels of IgG MBA markers are shown (B). The order of how antigens were added was determined by the variable importance when fitting a model with only IgG MBA markers.
Median and 95% credible intervals are shown for the estimated (A) nominal specificity (black dashed line) and (B) time-varying sensitivity. Each row represents a different method for acquiring a cut-off including the Youden Index or maximizing sensitivity for a desired value of specificity. The relationship between logit(sensitivity) and time since infection (log-transformed) was constant for the 45-day window, linear for the 120-day, quadratic for the 200-day window, and cubic for the 300-day window. Traditional = vibriocidal Ogawa, vibriocidal Inaba, and 4 ELISA markers, All MBA = 18 MBA markers, All MBA IgG = 6 MBA markers, Reduced panel= Ogawa OSP, Inaba OSP, and CT-B IgG. All models also included age, sex, and blood type as predictors.